Monday, July 23, 2007

Completing the pass

Here's where I cut and paste from another 10 different posts: hey, there's a great article by! (wait for stunned silence to lift). This one examines more closely the completion % stat for quarterbacks by taking into account both drops and pass distance.

Some comments:
1. Manning was second last year in Comp % in the NFL, but if you count drops as catches, he soars to #1. Does anyone realize how amazing this is for a verticle passing offense. Not only that, but he only threw 9 Ints, and about half of those came on hail mary's and drops in and out of the hands of receivers (Harrison got him at least twice-against Tennessee and Philly). It shouldn't surprise anyone that David Carr led the league last year, most of his passes were short. Manning however, remains accurate despite an offense that varies it's depth. Absolutely tremendous.

2. Tom Brady was clear hurt by drops last year. He wasn't in the top 10, but if you adjust for drops, he's 6th. This is not really a compliment. Brady plays in a short pass, west coast offense. The CW around yak yak circles is that Brady is somehow more accurate than Manning. This largely comes from the high pick totals Manning threw in years 1-4 of his career. Since 2002, however, Manning has shown to be incredibly accurate, while Brady plays in a system that OUGHT to produce high completion % numbers and high QB ratings, yet doesn't. The reason is that Brady is just not that accurate a QB.

3. Manning is 3rd in adjusted completion % (that is subtracting tipped balls, throw aways, ect).
Drew Brees soars to #1. I wonder if his height, or lack there of, is what hurts him here. If you take out tipped passes, he looks even better than before. Possibly because he gets lots of balls tipped. I'm not ripping him; I love Brees, but it does merit mentioning.

4. If you take out short passes, Manning still completes an astounding 76.5% of his passes. Siiiiiick. That puts him at number 2; Tim Rattay led the league, but with a small sample size claims the article. Brady...? Don't bother looking for him. He's not there. Again, possibly his receivers share all the blame for this. But remember, drops are counted as completions for this number, so he should be somewhere right? Don't believe the hype about the wideouts transforming the NE passing game. 1. Their offense isn't vertically designed and 2. Brady doesn't really throw a top 10 deep ball. This is the year a lot myths fall about Brady melt away...

1 comment:

coltsfanawalt said...

Is there any real debate, apart from Pats fans, that Mannning is the elite of the league and Brady isn't even close?

I agree that this will be a very revealing year for NE, with all of their new targets. Also, barring injuries, Manning will distance himself above any debate in the next two seasons.