Monday, August 27, 2007

Is it all greek to you?

We've talked a lot about the concept of Pythagorean wins in the past few weeks. As we've pointed out, this solid predictor of future results does not look good for the boys in blue this year. We've also pointed out that the Colts tend to outperform their projected wins (a fact which gives us hope this year). The question is why? One of the obvious conclusions would be to say that Peyton Manning is elevating the team through his spectacular play. Footballoutsiders studied this very theory:

the conclusion? Meh, can't prove it's true. There is not statistical evidence that great QB play in general can cause a team to consistently over perform. I know that this is news to those who want to make the QB singlehandedly responsible for wins and losses (if you want a hoot check out the schlock on about Rothlisberger today- does he suck or not? He won so many games he must be great! But his numbers and play are erratic, what if he starts sucking? OUR BRAINS MIGHT EXPLODE!), but there just isn't any justification for it. QB play is one component of many. Let's keep it all in perspective. The Colts overperform every year. Some of that probably is Peyton. Some is Tony Dungy (the most overperforming coach in the NFL). There's no good way to know for sure.

Demond Sanders' Comments: Well that's underwhelming. This shows me that you can't use statistical analysis for everything. If you do then you will inevitibly spend loads to of time trying to prove things almost all of us have already accepted to be true, but for whatever reason can't be proven by numbers. For example: You can't put a number on leading two game winning touchdown drives in a five minute stretch. Those clutch scores against the Jets didn't affect the team stats that much, but they were the difference between a 12-4 and an 11-5 season.

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

Using his stats alone to try to understand what Manning does for a football team is like using a woman's measurements to decide if she's beautiful.