Wednesday, December 26, 2007

Links

I feel like I'm running out of things to say, because I spend so much energy responding to our good friends with the weird accents in the comments section. As my confidence about this season grows each time I watch the Pats and Colts play, the hilarity of how this season will end rises. I've noticed around that some people are starting to question the validity of the argument that the Pats can't run and the Colts can. This argument was obviously most effective after the Pats and Colts played, and Joe Addai clearly rushed the ball more consistently. The Colts largely held down the Pats run game despite having major injuries at linebacker. The stats didn't reflect it so much (Addai had a carry that went for -9 yards as Charlie Johnson began his game changing implosion), but everyone who saw that game could see that the Colts ran better against NE than NE ran against the Pats.

Unfortunately, something major changed since then. Indy spent most of the next 6 weeks struggling to run as they lost first Tony Ugoh and then Ryan Diem. Of course, both of these guys are expected to be back (Ugoh already is) for the playoffs. The scores of wounded recievers and linemen slowed down the run game temporarily. In the meantime, the Patsies beefed up against the Jets and Dolphins (who are terrible against the run). Thus, some chowder heads have begun to feel overconfident by looking at season stats about running. Hey, they say, we run better than the Colts. No, you don't. The Pats cannot run as effectively as a HEALTHY Colts team (which we'll have in January). Stats without context are meaningless. Any idiot can put up a list averages and think it means something.

Oddly enough, one of the stats helping the Pats rushing numbers has been Tom Brady. Because they run so many deep patterns, Brady has been able to scramble much more effectivley this season. He has 33 attempts for 102 yards. Manning has 20 attempts for -5 yards. These numbers factor into a team's rushing stats and skew the true averages.

Remember, that this only matters in bad weather games. The Pats would be crazy to run, when they can pass so well. But they are crazy to have a deep lob passing offense when they play in New England. That's just stupid. It's going to kill them in the end.

All that was a long set up to say, "Hey, check out these links!"

DJ Gallo does his best PK. Funny stuff
The FO DVOA conversation may look like alphabet soup, but never ceases to interst me.

18 comments:

Bob M. said...

RE the FO stats, as well as conventional stats, you are so right in terms of context. I'd normally give more credence to the weighted DVOA which weighs more recent games more heavily, but that would include the Colts' mid-season injury rash and performance swoon, and Maroney's two recent breakout games. I am a bit concerned about our run game, pinning my hopes on Diem's return--which is not included in DVOA. I WAS surprised to see (on the execrable CHFF of all places) that the Pats have run more in the first half than the 2nd half this season. So they run the empty backfield less often than I thought.

Regarding conventional stats, man, that last Maroney game (like many of Fred Taylor's) looked impressive, but if you take out the two 50-yard runs (anomalies for him, though not his opponents--hell, I am surprised he didn't pull a hammy on #2) (and to be fair, Taylor gets a LOT of those long runs, so that is an integral part of his game), Maroney had a nice day with a good YPC but under 60 yards. ho-hum. And DPAR takes this type of stuff into account whereas anybody looking at conventional stats does not necessarily do so.

Deshawn Zombie said...

I hate getting into these pissing matches with Pats fans, because we are GOING to find out who is right very soon.

As we can all agree, injuries are not an excuse for losing a game. They are, however, a valuable point for analyizing who will win the next game.

I think the Colts team that faces NE in a month will be significantly stronger than the one that faced them in November. That gives me great confidence that the outcome will be different.

colts girl said...

I agree wholeheartedly.

:)

Anonymous said...

http://www.tribstar.com/local/local_story_360170140.html

(Anyone else want to get sick this Saturday?)

jc said...

The Indy game is on in it's entirety on NFL Network right now.

Seymour looks like like a gimpy little girl and Freeney is everywhere.

And the crowd was pretty loud.

Any truth to the rumour that Marvin's injury is a lot more serious than team officials let on?

Deshawn Zombie said...

That's been the debate for weeks. The problem is that the Colts have desperately needed his roster spot. If he really wasn't going to play in the playoffs, they would have put him on IR. They needed the spot too desperately to waste it on a bluff.

If for some reason Marvin really is done, then I'm on record as saying it was the dumbest and most ill advised ploy of all time. He'll be back when it counts. He already played in Jacksonville after the injury, so it's not like they amputated his leg or something.

Loosing Freeney was huge, but losing Ugoh, Harrison, Gonzalez, Keiaho and Hagler was bigger.

JC said...

They showed a clip of it on New England Sports Tonight and it looked pretty bad.

Like, justifies his long absence.

Is Mathis dinged too? I hope so. He'll get plenty of rest even if he is.

HeatherRadish said...

I think it's nice that the NFL Network is trying to evade a Congressional investigation into their monopoly, but is simulcasting on TWO broadcast networks really necessary? Are there any U.S. TV markets that don't get CBS?

It's not like a moon landing or an invasion of Canada or anything...

Shake'n'bake said...

Awesome info from Football Outsiders about the 2007 Colts. "Only three other Super Bowl champions had more wins the next year: 1975 Steelers, 1989 49ers and 1998 Broncos. All three repeated as champs."

Shake'n'bake said...

2006 Colts 12-4
2007 Colts 13-2

Bob M. said...

I did not know that about SB winners and their records. Seriously, looking at the records and accomplishments of 06 & 07, plus the injuries expected to be better in week 19 than week 10, if not for our friends in New England, the Colts would be just about all that was talked about in the NFL this year. Frankly I'd have found it loathesome.

I'm glad we currently have a team that legitimately ranks among the all-time greats and am also glad there's somebody to take the media heat off them. But I WOULD be ticked if our greatest year happened to coincide with the Pats having an even better one. Argh. That must be how Daunte Culpepper felt in 2004. Let's hope I never know how he felt at year's end.

Bob M. said...

Shake 'n' Bake, here's another tidbit from FO: if you go to the Week 16 DVOA page there is a table of the top-10 great DVOA teams in the DVOA era. Guess what: at least six of those 10 will not be SB winners (because both 07 Colts and Pats are on the list--I'll assume that one of those teams wins, but who knows?). How about that!

Timing. It appears to be important.

Also: it's the size of the fight in the dog.

Among the non-SB winners who had great season-long DVOA are the 01 Rams, 04 Colts and Steelers, 05 Colts, and 06 Chargers. All of which were very, very good teams.

Anonymous said...

Eli's pseudo-beard made me wonder what Peyton would look like with a beard.

Anonymous said...

I agree with this guy that 07 may be Peyton's best season.

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/5388-NFL-Indianapolis_Colts-Manning_at_His_Best_in_07_-261207

Deshawn Zombie said...

Pro-NE comment was deleted per our rules. All pro-NE comments must have some indication of who left them.

Bob M. said...

Deshawn,
Now you're tempting me to log on as anonymous and leave some pro-Pats screed so factually bankrupt, so mindlessly biased and loopy that you're laughing your ass off in incredulity as you delete it.

But such artwork takes time and inspiration.... Maybe I'll have to skim the opuses of Don Banks, Tom Curran, a little PK hyperbole for fodder. I'm thinking something about the archbishop of Boston confirming that the mysterious "shroud of Cambridge" bears an image with a striking resemblance to Brady.... Maybe Nostradamus predicted "a reign of blue and red and silver so long as the hooded general rides at the head of their army."

JC said...

Bob:

Who are you the Dennis Miller of blogspot?

funtime42 said...

A surprisingly positive article on CHFF:

http://www.coldhardfootballfacts.com/Articles/11_1980_And_the_Defensive_Player_of_the_Year_is__..._.html

I suppose posting it here kinda gives away the surprise...