Monday, September 15, 2008

Two seconds

That's how long Manning said they had to operate yesterday. I watched the first half again last night (talk about an act of self-sacrifice), and I saw a lot of two kinds of problems: 1. lots of missed assignments and 2. when guys figured out who to block, it wasn't a sure thing they actually could block. As good as we all feel about the win, Sunday's game against Jacksonville is still a must win. The Jags are desperate, and a win could nail shut their season, and quite probably effectively end the future of pro football in Jacksonville.

Other thoughts:
  • New England will be around as long as their back 8 holds up. The Pats thrived for years on a simple ball control game plan that we thought could have been executed by anyone. Now they are getting back to that, only with Walker and Moss for Cassel to go to. I still expect them to win 12 games. I'm actually sort of hoping for it.
  • Norv Turner is a crappy coach. His statement about the officiating is gutless. The call was awful, but instead of openly blaming the loss on the official, how about some accountability? Why not say, "We can't keep falling behind by two touchdowns!" or "We still had two chances after the fumble to stop them and win the game, but didn't". The Chargers are a whiny bunch, and while I'm sure they'll come back strong, I don't think they have what it takes to win it all.
  • The Monday Night game against the Titans looms large.
  • It'll still be a couple of more weeks before we really know who is good in this league, like for instance, Jay Cutler. He was alternately great and awful yesterday. Two more weeks should provide some clarity.
  • I suppose it goes with the territory, but Manning was killed last week when they lost and praised this week when they won, but I thought he played better last week. Last week the WRs dropped the ball. This week the picks were 18's fault, and Gonzo was out of his mind.
  • Anthony Gonzalez is going to be a great Colt for a long time. Everyone has had that feeling about him from draft day last year, and his interviews are awesome. He takes this game super seriously AND is insanely talented. Sounds like some other players I know.
  • Dwight Freeney...oh yeah. He's fine.
  • Eyes was pretty on target this week. I always check it after the game to see how we did. Other than the Tamme/Robinson point (which was still right, only with Santi because Tamme was out), we were right on. Ron Paul's speech with 5 minutes to play really broke up the flow of the game. Could have done without that.
  • Watching the game with all of you was fun. If I had realized that some of you were depending on the game blog to know what was up, I wouldn't have taken a break. Sorry.
  • Big Z is great. But Houston should be livid. They have to play a home game in Milwaukee while all the players are worried about their homes and communities. No wonder they got no hit.

Links:

Jeff Fisher answers some of my questions about the Young story. Primarily that the psychologist mentioned in the original story is NOT VYs therapist, but rather a team consultant who never talked with Young until after the incident. Basically, the story was reported wrong, which makes sense. The original story was convoluted and if true as written, would have involved serious breaches of protocol. Basically we are back to not knowing if Young has serious issues or is just a pampered 23 year old kid who needs to grow up and realize that life requires hard work and pain in order to achieve success.

John Clayton says more coaches should emulate Shanahan. Going for two when he did was actually the higher percentage play. About 60% of 2 point conversion plays work. Your chances in OT are about 55% even if you win the flip. The Chargers defense was weak all day. Maybe in a 10-9 game, you kick the point, but on a day when both defenses are getting gashed, going for two made sense.

Kravitz says Manning is great. No crap. I love how he throws stupid lines in about Brady just to irritate Colts fans. He's an ass. Still, he gave us this quote which made it worth my while to read him:

"Reggie (Wayne) and I talked (in the second quarter) about getting man coverage,'' Manning said later. "Sometimes he tries to make a little pump move, but I told him, 'We don't have time for you to make pump moves. Just go, and I'll throw it right by (the defender's) ear. He won't even know the ball's been thrown by the time it's in your hands.' ''

The exchange between Peter King and Mike Shanahan in MMQB today is priceless.

"What happened to the Colts?'' Shanahan said. "How'd they win?''
"Peyton Manning,'' I said. "Four offensive linemen out, Dallas Clark out, down 15-0 in the Metrodome, they can't run, Vinatieri misses a chip-shot and it looks like they'll lose, and Manning just, I don't know, wouldn't let them.''
"Wow,'' he said.

Don Banks piece on the game was really cool.

Audibles at the Line contains a lengthy discussion of the game. It's interesting to hear smart non-Colts fans (who are also watching several other games at the same time) react to things. Some of the observations are insightful, others flat wrong (The stretch plays aren't working...um, because they didn't actually run any!), but generally entertaining.

CHFF looks at Sunday's games. Also, I overstated the odds slightly, but Shanahan was still right.

Michael Lombardi gives Peyton an A. That's pretty amazing really, considering a month ago, Lombardi had some people convinced that come week 2 Peyton would be at home on the couch or writhing in pain considering all the shots he would be taking. Yeah, I'm not going to let that go.

I'm not to proud to say that YAR has me stumped. Manning gets a -20 YAR for getting stopped twice on a sneak? Since when did a QB getting stuffed from the one on a sneak equal a loss of 10 yards? Am I dense here? Isn't that what this implies? Manning getting stuffed twice didn't have anywhere near the same effect as losing 20 yards would have. I love FO, but what's the point of trying to tie a system into easily understood terms like yards and points, if the stats come out that skewed? I know there is something I'm missing here. Can anyone explain it to me?

31 comments:

Demond Sanders said...

I love you Peyton!

Bob M. said...

You pulled two awesome quotes out. And saved me the time I might have spent reading those articles. Will you send themin to FO or shall I? (I haven't been able to use their new site, so....)

Rumor has it that since he was IRed, Merriman has added 40 lbs of pure muscle--no drug testing = 53- inch biceps. Okay, maybe I just started that rumor....

Deshawn Zombie said...

The new site works, and you don't need to log in...

it was just messed up in the first few days it was up

Shake'n'bake said...

Awesome line from a KSK commenter

"If Peterson is Purple Jesus, does that make Tarvaris Purple Judas?"

coltsfanawalt said...

Awesome quotes! Thanks for your homework. Made my day. That was a great game, by the way.

coltsfanawalt said...

Purple Judas! I am going to use that. Thanks for passing it on, as well.

Bob M. said...

18-1! 18-1!

Bob M. said...

Since the FO website does not allow me to log in I could not comment on Audibles. In addition to his other skills, Will Carroll is apparently adept at lip-reading and has super-sensitive ears, because he said when Peyton went to the sidelines he was whining. He must KNOW what he is talking about or he would not spew such idiocy, right?

Ah, bitter, small-minded Pats fans caught in an unguarded moment. It's like 2003/2004 all over again. I really wanted to tear him a new one on FO and not here. damn. Hope their webmaster gets back to me....

jc said...

Bob the Colts looked like a bunch of bitches yesterday.

T-Jack is the worst quarterback in the NFL. Terrible.

Even DZ said yesterday during the blog a good team bangs you by 20 points.

Deshawn Zombie said...

There is no question about it.

Shake'n'bake said...

On the other side though, if the Colts played that game with a healthy Saturday, Lilja, Pollak and Ugoh it's a blowout.

Bob M. said...

JC, How does that relate to Will Carroll saying "Manning was whining" as usual?

And I'd amend your statement slightly--the OL was absolutely owned by the Vikes' DL. On D, somehow I didn't see any Purple Jesus runs over 5 yards--apparently he had about a dozen of them. (The benefits of doing yard work on a sunny day.) So the D looked mediocre but not bad when I saw them live.

When I went to NFL.com to watch Peterson highlights, I got nauseous.

Bitches.

But you know what? Two years ago everyone blamed the Colts' playoff success on the other teams going away from their gameplans--why rush LJ only 12 times? Same for Jamal Lewis. Etc. Why did MN use Chester Taylor at all or throw so often on 3rd down? Maybe AP was winded from 30+ touches? I don't know, but they did what they did and the Colts won. At some point one has to stop blaming the other teams for losing.

Yes, a "good team" would have scored at least 2 TDs instead of 2 FGs, maybe more. But every instance (be it a game or an individual play from scrimmage) is independent of ther others. Would you also agree that a "good team" at home should win in a blowout when they pick your QB 6 times and have two return TDs plus you lose two key players to injury...? I would. Yet SD barely escaped with a win over Indy last year despite having ALL THE BREAKS go their way (including a 102 yard pick-six called back for inadvertent whistle). How? Who knows? Both were clearly good teams, but the home team with all the breaks barely won. Was SD the Colts' bitch? Vice versa? I don't think so.

jc said...

Because Brad Childress is a moron.

Just like our game with Fat Boy Rat Boy, you had a considerable coaching advantage in that game.

With the exception of us, Shanahan and Fischer...you have that advantage every week.

I woke up dehydrated and curious about how I got home.....so I wasn't doing yard work. I watched every snap.

Obviously I was rooting against the Colts....but (and I sent the brothers this email) Peterson is the best back I've seen since a healthy Terrell Davis.

And I don't really read the links bc they don't have to do with my team. So I don't know who said what about Peyton.

But the biggest bitches on the field were the Minnesota coaching staff for that third and 5 blast of right tackle??????? What the EFF was that??

Just an aggravating game to watch.

Bob M. said...

Shake,
Might even be a bigger blowout than what a casual observer might envision because if the Colts went up by 14 or more, then maybe T Jack is pressured into passing more... and the more he passes, the less AP runs and the better the Colts D looks, the more the D rests, the better they perform. If the OL is solid, the effect goes WAY beyond just the O scoring 14 more or so...
But you probably meant that.
Maybe Merriman can share some of his pharmnaceuticals to help them recover faster.... Looking at the sked, we could well be 5-1 when we roll into a tough game in GB. A week ago I'd have laughed at the notion. This year, the bye week might be perfectly placed to help the walking wounded recover. And by then teams would have some game film on Rodgers....

jc said...

I'll mail him somethin to get him back quick.

Deshawn Zombie said...

Rodgers has been great...against Minnesota and Detroit. Maybe he's the second coming of Bart Starr, or maybe he just played a couple of lousy pass defenses. I love it when people say something like "Right now XXXX is the best QB in the game!" (said of Rodgers on Mike and Mike this morning).

I always remember they said the same thing about Grossman early in '06 (Peter King declared him a possible MVP). We'll know who is good and who isn't in a month.

Bob M. said...

JC you surely have the coaching thing right. I doubted Shanahan for a few years there, and still might. Fisher taught us all a lesson 2 years ago with his last second FG after we wasted a TO. And I'd say Lovie and Co outcoached Dungy and Co last week. Having better coaching doesn't guarantee anything, but it helps a whole lot (and they're not salary capped!).

I used to hate wondering where my car was 10-15 years ago when I'd wake up on a Sunday morning, and then marvel that somehow I parked it perfectly the night before. Glad those days are long gone; that stuff gets in the way of the five-mile runs at 6 am. Unfortunately, so does everything else.

Bob M. said...

DZ
Right now Brian Moorman is a better QB than Tom Brady! Just look at his rating and TD numbers! They're off the charts! I'm telling you, Buffalo has two All-Pro-caliber slingers and a QB controversy is brewing. They're 2-0--one of the best teams in football!

God, can I get a job on one of those shows?

Deshawn Zombie said...

The most give those jobs to ex-atheletes, and you know...guys in broadcasting.

It's not exactly fair, is it?

Bob M. said...

Might be fair--not sure they can do anything else. The ex-jocks might make decent coaches, but the broadcasting guys....

Deshawn Zombie said...

That was from Seinfeld, Bob.

George wanted to be a sportscaster because he "always makes great comments" during games.

Jerry gently bursts his bubble.

coltsfanawalt said...

I can't believe they buried those two alive and paralyzed. That was freaky when Nikki opened her eyes as the dirt covered her face.

I am not sure what to think of Juliet getting left behind, yet. These people are very deceptive. Either way, she is less annoying than Kate. And Locke is really starting to annoy me.

Great show.

Shake'n'bake said...

Best I can do on the rushing YAR:
1. Usually a QB can convert on a one yard sneak so both play were clearly below replacement level.

2. YAR likely uses a TD bonus that's similar to the 10 yard bonus used in adjusted yards per attempt.

So two plays that would usually net a 10ish yard value went for nothing, so -20 YAR.

Sound reasonable? (my explanation, not the system. I don't care enough about QB rushing to stress over how FO measures it).

Demond Sanders said...

For the record AP got shut down by the Colts in the second half. Less than 3 yards per carry on 15 carries.

coltsfanawalt said...

Okay. So she is a spy. I still sympathize with her character. But that Ben is a real Belichick...

Deshawn Zombie said...

Shake: Never mind then. I do understand. What I don't understand is why they feel that this accurate reflects performance.

Anonymous said...

Who rates a QB based on a QB sneak? The success or failure of a sneak is all about the line.

From Banks: 5. Marvin Harrison isn't all the way back. After missing all but five games last year due a knee problem, the Colts veteran receiver didn't look like himself last week against the Bears, even though he managed eight catches for 76 yards (with one key fumble lost).

But after watching him Sunday against the Vikings, it seemed he was an afterthought in the Colts' offensive game plan. Harrison caught just one pass against Minnesota, for 16 yards. Manning fed a team-high nine passes for 137 yards to receiver Anthony Gonzalez, and Wayne chipped in with five catches for 93 yards and the game-tying 32-yard touchdown.

Not long ago, no quarterback and receiver had more of a connection than Manning and Harrison, who seemed to know each other's next move by instinct. That kind of timing is obviously lacking right now, and it could be that Harrison's injury last year and Manning's knee surgery this summer has had a significant toll on their on-field chemistry.

Bob M. said...

DZ,
Sorry, Seinfeld was at its peak when I had a regular Thursday night poker game... Priorities. I caught a lot in reruns, but I never had the urgency to memorize it for water cooler chatter the next day. Though my office in those days was on the 2nd floor right above the sign that reads "Diner" (or was it "Restaurant"?) at 112th and Broadway--called Monks in the show. I should probably get the DVDs for consumption in the off-season. I can watch them from the little cubby I had built under my desk.

What I like about the YAR pages... There are a lot of QBs worse that TJax!??? Addai did not have the worst RB day!??? (What does Gonzo have to do to make the top-5? Probably score a TD.)

I toldja, in the 2.5 quarters that I saw,whic hincluded most of the 2nd half, AP did not have a run of more than 5. I was stunned to see his totals. (And more stunned afterwards, to see his highlights--positively 206-Jagsesque tackling).

Any news on our injuries? Can we have a vote on what the most important injury issue facing the Colts is... Manning's knee and the stretch play? Saturday's absence? Clark's absence? (I love him but when do we start calling him Fragile Dallas Clark?) Ugoh's whatever? The Zombie's ankle? Mike Vanderjagt's goatee?

Shake'n'bake said...

I vote Ugoh's groin. Charlie Johnson at LT is a nightmare.

Shake'n'bake said...

oh and thanks for the idea Bob

John said...

I started using the Charlie "Turnstyle" Johnson moniker while listening to an Internet broadcast of the game. I wish we'd picked up the veteran Cincinnati tackle whose name escapes me at the moment.