Saturday, October 4, 2008

The Eyes of Texas

Here's this week's entry of Eyes in the Backfield. It contains my two favorite stats for people who are freaking out over the 08 Colts (highlighted in red)...

So things haven't exactly gone according to plan, but with the bulk of the season still in front of them, the Colts look to rebound from the gut check loss to the Jags, by taking on the winless Texans. Houston was a preseason darling of a lot of people, but were blown out by the Steelers in week 1, and it only got worse from there. Indy needs a win badly, and if things go well, here's what you'll see:

1. Watch for points. The Colts have had a healthy bye week just in time to gain rhythm and players back healthy. The Texans showed an ability to move the ball last week. This should be a high scoring affair. Indy has scored 39 points in their last 30 minutes of Time of Possession. The Colts defense has only allowed 3 touchdowns through three games, but the offense has 'helped' out by allowing 16 defensive points of their own. One way or another, the Colts O is scoring points.

2. Watch for Mike Pollack. The second round pick was slated to be a starter at guard this season, but a knee injury has kept Howard Mudd scrambling to fill his spot. Together with the return of Tony Ugoh, the Colts line is as healthy as it has been in some time (though it is still missing Ryan Lilja).

For more just click.

Links:
This joke just isn't funny (to me). It's hilarious to everyone else in the world.
Friday morning at O'Hare Airport, a voice came over the p.a. system, puzzling many passengers: "Paging Kosuke Fukudome, paging Kosuke Fukudome … Please report to the Cincinnati Reds. You have been traded for a player to be named later." Some of the passengers waiting for flights laughed; others cringed.
Oh no. Please no, never.

WHAT?!? I just found out that I'm screwed. The Brighthouse pissing match with WISH just hit home for me 10,000 miles away. My friend with the slingbox? Guess which cable company he has. SUCK! At least they are going to air the radio play by play. Fun times. Ok, Bob Lamey! It's me and you tomorrow, bud.



This is an appropriate metaphor for the 2008 Cubs. Spend a long time building them, then shake them up and watch them disappear. Thanks to Ruth Ann for the link.

32 comments:

zac said...

Hey, he's an All-Star!!

/drunk Cubs fan

Shake'n'bake said...

He had a very good first half, not so much with the second.

Deshawn Zombie said...

No, he had a VERY average first half followed by a sucky second half.

"After a fast start, Fukudome's 2008 MLB performance faded. With a .327 batting average ending April, each successive month had less success as Fukudome batted .293 in May, .264 in June, .236 in July, .193 in August, and .178 in September, ending the year with a .257 average."

From the Wikipedia article on him.
He had a very good April, a solid May, and basically was a liability after that.

Shake'n'bake said...

Awesone site, Fangraphs (here's Fukudome's page)

He stayed above the average (in just about everything) mark until midseason. Surprisingly his SLG was the last thing to go under the league average mark. If you look at his BABIP graph it falls along with everything else. He started out lucky and ended unlucky. So it's more of a happy medium. He isn't as good as he started or as bad as he ended.

Deshawn Zombie said...

That doesn't mean he was good for half the season. It just means that he started so far above the baseline that it took his aggregate numbers a while to catch up with how bad he was playing. He was really good for a month, month and a half.

Great graphs though. They show a guy on a one way escalator headed DOWN.

zac said...

And you guys paid $50 million over 5 years for production that can easily be found for the league minimum.

Just awesome. I literally cannot wait until these contracts become huge weights, actually, its starting to happen already!

Shake'n'bake said...

His BABIP fell with everything else and with a guy lacking power like Kosuke that's death on his numbers. Luckily since he was hitting about the same proportion of line drives/grounders/fly balls his BABIP will regress to the mean.

and since you are patting yourself on the back for bashing Fukudome before it was popular I just have to point out a guy you were totally wrong on.
.256/.369/.568 138 OPS+ guess who put up that line for the Cubs.

coltsfanawalt said...

Amazing last two posts. Nothing like rubbing salt in the wound or kicking someone while they're down. Reminds me of some Patriots fans after the last Colts playoff loss. Oh, well. At least the Colts and Cubs made the postseason this year. Go Colts. And I'm outta here.

Demond Sanders said...

In fairness, we kick the Cubs while they are up too. Though admittedly that isn't very often.

Deshawn Zombie said...

Yeah, I was stunned the Edmonds managed to be a productive player. I naively assumed the Padres had more sense than to straight cut a useful player. The thing I was most wrong about (and still don't understand) is how the Cubs managed to get Rich Harden for so little.

And like I said Walt, I apologize. I seriously can't help myself. It's a problem since I have way too many friends who are huge Cubs fans. My hatred of the Pats only goes so far, but I've disliked the Cubs since I was 10 years old and my best friend's idiot little sister liked the Cubs because of the bear logo. I wish I could quit hating them...but I can't.

Shake'n'bake said...

True story, I'm watching Hannibal Rising right now and recording the Cubs game because I think the Cubs game will be more depressing.

zac said...

Apparently coltsfanwalt didn't go to college with the cubs fans i did.

I'm trying to think what the Cubs fan mirror of this blog would be called. The best I can come up with so far is:

opposinghittertowavelandave.blogspot.com

Shake'n'bake said...

Cubs have stranded 20 so far this series and have #21 on first.

zac said...

Here's the comeback shake. Don't watch Hannibal Rising, its awful.

Shake'n'bake said...

Fukudome singles up the middle to be lucky #22 LOB

Shake'n'bake said...

I already finished watching it and it was amazing compared to the first 6 innings of the Cubs game.

zac said...

Soriano being a "mistake hitter" has at least two correct definitions.

Shake'n'bake said...

did anyone that's watched the Cubs not know the answer when the announcer asked whether Soriano was going to swing for the fences with two on.

Shake'n'bake said...

and there is no such thing as a "mistake hitter" or at the very least absolutely no evidence.

link

just another attempt to attach a reason to random chance in small samples.

zac said...

Seeing Manny in his Cleveland days is crazy.

And these announcers are committing felonies up there. Just awful, awful work.

zac said...

"We measured the "mistake differential" as the difference between batter performance against "good pitchers" and batter performance against "bad pitchers."

I think that is a poor definition of being a mistake hitter, so this data is fairly irrelevant.

Shake'n'bake said...

I don't follow. Shouldn't a mistake hitter have a bigger than normal difference between OPS vs good pitchers and OPS vs bad pitchers. That's kinda the definition of a mistake hitter.

Deshawn Zombie said...

Aren't all good big league hitters "mistake hitters"? Isn't a mistake a hung curve ball?

I thought the term for the Soriano/Vlad/Yogi's of the world was "bad ball hitter".

Am I missing something?

I'm listening to Vin Scully on MLB.com. Immaculate.

zac said...

Not necessarily. A mistake pitch is one thrown in a poor location (usually down the middle) or just poorly thrown (hanging pitch). I guarantee you those types of pitches are hit much harder.

Just look at the "hot zones" of hitters, almost all of them are great hitters when the ball is thrown around their thighs over the plate.

This data doesn't deal with that definition. An interesting discussion regardless.

Shake'n'bake said...

and here's the tease. I don't buy it for a second Cubbies, you are still going to crush everyone's hopes. You aren't suckering me back in.

Shake'n'bake said...

I'm not sure if I want them to pull this one out so there's a slim chance of advancing, they don't get swept like last year and they last longer in the playoffs than the white sox or if I want it to just be over so I can move on.

zac said...

And there it is. Let the Second Century begin!

In all seriousness, these Cubs are much better than they showed the last four days. This core still has at least 1-2 years to try and get this done. If you keep putting yourself in position, you will eventually win the crapshoot that is the MLB playoffs. Keep the faith and don't get too down. Its not fun when that happens.

And all you Cubs fans that frequent this site...we are on the same side now. Let's go Colts!

Shake'n'bake said...

Colts gotta bring me back up. It's a good thing the Cubs are a distant second to the Colts

Demond Sanders said...

The Colts will pick you up today, I hope.

Don't feel bad Shake, I spent the day watching Indiana football fail miserably at the Metrodome. Now that was torture. But, like the Cubs fans, I knew what I was getting myself into.

The Second Century - LOL

Igor said...

Go to

http://myp2p.eu/broadcast.php?matchid=20305&part=sports

and you might be able to catch the game.

Deshawn Zombie said...

Thanks man, the internet I'm using is too slow for that link though.

I appriciate it.

jc said...

The Cubs are a bunch of bitches.

I know how you feel Shake...I really do.

I just...don't feel that way anymore.

HA! Big Josh sucker!